Cement is decarbonization's hardest case: ~60–65% of its CO2 is process chemistry — calcination of limestone releases CO2 regardless of fuel — and only ~35–40% comes from burning fuel in the kiln. That split dictates the strategy: efficiency and fuel measures attack the fuel share now; the calcination share ultimately needs clinker substitution or CCS.
| Year | Free allocation (EU) | Payable carbon cost | Annual bill (per 100,000 t cement) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 97.5% | €1.35 / t cement | €135,450 |
| 2030 | 51.5% | €26.28 / t cement | €2,627,730 |
| 2034 | 0.0% | €54.18 / t cement | €5,418,000 |
At EUA €77.4 (11 Jun 2026) and ≈0.7 t CO2/t cement (clinker-driven; GNR/IEA range 0.5–0.9). EU ETS industry schedule; exporters under CBAM follow the mirrored phase-in. Power sectors pay 100% from day one.
Indicative reduction potential of each measure against the relevant emissions share (sources: IEA industry roadmaps, sector associations — see each measure page). Measures stack but don't simply add.
Kiln shells run too hot for conventional jackets, but the rest of the plant doesn't: raw-mill hot-gas ducting, preheater tower fittings, coal-mill air systems and the boiler house all carry removable-insulation candidates. On the fuel share, every 1% of thermal efficiency ≈ 0.003 t CO2/t cement — at 500,000 t/yr and €77/t that's ≈€115k/yr per percentage point as free allocation ends.
Method: ASTM C680 / ISO 12241 surface energy balance — the same engine as our public calculators. Typical removable-insulation effect across hot-process plants: 2–5% of fuel-related CO2, payback up to 2 years.
Direct-emission intensities, typical published values per industry page — units differ by product; see each page for sources.