CBAM calculator — what your EU exports will pay

The CBAM cost formula

CBAM cost = embedded emissions (t CO2 per tonne of product) × exported volume (t) × phase-in share (%) × certificate price (€/t) − carbon price already paid in the country of origin.

Embedded emissions: verified MRV data or the EC default values. Phase-in share: 2.5% (2026) rising to 100% (2034) per Regulation (EU) 2023/956. Certificate price: linked to the EU ETS allowance price — €75.36/t official for Q1 2026, live EUA €80.01/t on this hub.

Cost per tonne of product, by year

At the official Q1-2026 certificate price of €75.36/t (build value; the live EUA feed is applied when available, EUA €80.01/t at build) and typical sector intensities — what one tonne of product pays at the border each year:

Year	Phase-in share	Steel BF-BOF (1.9 t/t)	Cement (0.7 t/t)	Aluminium (1.6 t/t)	Ammonia (2.0 t/t)
2026	2.5%	€3.58	€1.32	€3.01	€3.77
2027	5%	€7.16	€2.64	€6.03	€7.54
2028	10%	€14.32	€5.28	€12.06	€15.07
2029	22.5%	€32.22	€11.87	€27.13	€33.91
2030	48.5%	€69.44	€25.58	€58.48	€73.10
2031	61%	€87.34	€32.18	€73.55	€91.94
2032	73.5%	€105.24	€38.77	€88.62	€110.78
2033	86%	€123.14	€45.37	€103.70	€129.62
2034	100%	€143.18	€52.75	€120.58	€150.72

⬇ Download the table (CSV — opens in Excel)

Free to reuse with attribution to inzonex.co.uk/carbon/. Recalculated from the certificate price above on every update.

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CBAM certificate price — today and by quarter

The certificate price is set quarterly by the European Commission as the average of EU ETS auction closing prices. Official Q1 2026: €75.36/t (source: European Commission). The live EUA allowance price (€80.01/t as of the last refresh; market feed, dated) tracks where the next quarterly figure is heading — this hub refreshes it daily and the ETS price page shows the current level with its date.

Note: results are budgeting estimates based on official schedules and typical intensities — not legal, tax or customs advice. Your importer's declaration uses verified MRV data or EC default values.

Where the carbon bill meets the boiler house

The cheapest CBAM certificate is the one you don't need: verified intensity falls when avoidable heat loss falls.

Cement: kiln shells, preheater ducting and clinker-cooler surfaces run bare for maintenance access — removable insulation returns after every service. See industry profiles.
Steel: reheating-furnace doors, ladle lids and boiler houses carry constant standing losses that sit inside your MRV number.
Aluminium: auxiliary steam and casthouse heating are the insulable share of direct emissions.
Fertilizers/ammonia: SMR and steam-system losses — quantify them with the heat-loss calculator, then cut the verified intensity with removable modular insulation.

The calculator

CBAM cost calculator — 2026 to 2034

Pick your sector and production, choose «exporting to EU», and move the year slider: certificates = embedded emissions × phase-in share × €75.36.

Your sector Input mode

Annual production

Carbon market Price scenario

20160

Year

20262034

Your annual carbon cost — year

—

in 2030

—

in 2034 — full price

—

estimated emissions

—

payable share now

How Inzonex removable insulation does it →

or get the exact saving for your plant (free study) →

How is this calculated?

Emissions = production × typical sector intensity (cement 0.70, steel BF-BOF 1.90, EAF 0.40, aluminium 1.60 direct, ammonia 2.00 t CO2/t; gas power 0.37, coal 0.95 t/MWh — IEA/EC benchmark ranges). Cost = emissions × price × payable share. Inside the EU ETS the payable share follows the official free-allocation phase-out; for exporters without a domestic price it follows the CBAM phase-in. Your verified (MRV) emissions give the exact figure.

Why does my bill explode by 2030?

Not a forecast — a law. Regulation (EU) 2023/956 phases out free allocation for CBAM sectors from 97.5% (2026) to 51.5% (2030) to 0% (2034) — so the share you must pay for rises from 2.5% to 48.5% to 100%. A plant paying for 2.5% of its benchmark emissions today pays for 48.5% in 2030 — ~19× more certificates at the same price.

What is CBAM and does it apply to me?

The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism prices the embedded CO2 of cement, iron & steel, aluminium, fertilizers, hydrogen and electricity imported into the EU. If you export these to the EU and have no domestic carbon price, your importer buys CBAM certificates at the EU ETS-linked price (€75.36 in Q1 2026) on a rising share of embedded emissions — 2.5% in 2026 → 100% in 2034.

Where do the prices and data come from?

EU ETS: Trading Economics (July 13, 2026). CBAM certificate: European Commission Q1 2026 official price. UK ETS: ICE/Statista (2025). China: Argus (Mar 2025). California: CARB auction (Feb 2025). National taxes: World Bank State & Trends of Carbon Pricing 2025 / ICAP 2025. Facility emissions: Climate TRACE satellite estimates (2023) — indicative, not verified declarations.

FAQ

Questions

What is the CBAM cost formula?

CBAM cost = embedded emissions × exported volume × phase-in share × certificate price, minus any carbon price already paid at origin. With verified data you use your real intensity; otherwise EC default values apply. At €75.36/t and 2.5% phase-in, one tonne of BF-BOF steel pays ≈€3.58 in 2026 — and ≈€143 at 100% in 2034.

How is CBAM cost calculated?

Embedded emissions (t CO2/t product, verified or default) × exported volume × phase-in share (2.5% in 2026 → 100% in 2034) × certificate price (€75.36/t in Q1 2026, EU ETS-linked).

Can I download the results to Excel?

Yes — the per-tonne cost table for 2026–2034 downloads as CSV (opens directly in Excel), free to reuse with attribution. The interactive calculator's URL also encodes your inputs, so a link reproduces your scenario.

Is this CBAM calculator free?

Yes — and results are shareable: the URL updates as you move sliders. It uses typical sector intensities; your verified MRV data gives the exact figure.

What price does the calculator use?

The official EC certificate price €75.36/t (Q1 2026) for CBAM mode and live-fetched EUA for EU ETS mode; the price slider lets you test €20–160 scenarios.

How this page is built: heat-loss figures follow ASTM C680 / ISO 12241 (the method behind our public calculators); facility emissions from Climate TRACE & EU ETS verified data across 30,000+ industrial sites; the 2026–2034 schedule is Regulation (EU) 2023/956, not a forecast. Published by Inzonex Research. Spotted an error? Tell us — we correct on evidence.