Iron & steel exporters face the EU CBAM gap above the modest domestic tax.
Carbon tax ≈R190–236/t (≈€9–12, 2025, World Bank State & Trends of Carbon Pricing 2025 / ICAP 2025) with large allowances.
At the EU ETS price of €80.01/t, this CO2 corresponds to an indicative carbon value of:
| Facility | Sector | t CO2/yr (est. 2023) | Gross value (full) |
|---|---|---|---|
| ArcelorMittal Vanderbijlpark Steel Works | 4,161,451 | €313.6M | |
| ArcelorMittal Newcastle Steel Works | 2,351,963 | €177.2M | |
| Richards Bay, Hillside aluminium plant | 1,602,048 | €120.7M | |
| ZAF-Gert Sibande_ammonia | 1,240,800 | €93.5M | |
| Sasol Polymers Secunda, Secunda | 1,151,305 | €86.8M |
Gross value = all tracked CO2 × the carbon price; it is a ranking aid, not a liability. Emissions: Climate TRACE satellite estimates (2023) — indicative, not verified declarations. CBAM falls only on emissions embedded in EU-bound exports, at the phased-in share (2.5% in 2026 → 100% by 2034). More: IndustryAtlas.
Cut the bill at the source: heat-loss elimination via removable insulation typically saves 2–5% of fuel-related CO2 with <2-year payback — run the savings study or read the industrial insulation guide.