The questions
What is the carbon price in the EU today?
€77.4 per tonne of CO2 (EUA, 11 Jun 2026, Trading Economics). The official CBAM certificate price is €75.36 for Q1 2026.
What will the EU carbon price be in 2030?
Nobody knows — and we don't forecast. Analyst ranges published in 2025-26 cluster between €90 and €160 by 2030 driven by the tightening cap; our calculator lets you test any price from €20 to €160 as a scenario.
When does free allocation end?
2034 — completely. The schedule (Reg. 2023/956): 97.5% free in 2026, 90% in 2028, 51.5% in 2030, 26.5% in 2032, 14% in 2033, 0% in 2034.
Which sectors does CBAM cover?
Cement, iron & steel, aluminium, fertilizers, hydrogen and electricity — with a review to extend to more sectors (chemicals, polymers) before 2030.
Who physically pays CBAM — exporter or importer?
The EU importer (as 'authorised CBAM declarant') buys and surrenders certificates. Commercially the cost flows into the trade price, so exporters feel it in negotiations.
Is there a carbon price in the United States?
No federal price. California's cap-and-trade ($29.27 at the Feb 2025 auction) and RGGI (north-eastern power sector) are the main systems; most US industry pays nothing domestically.
Do Saudi Arabia or the UAE have a carbon tax?
No — no Gulf state prices carbon domestically (voluntary credit markets aside). Their EU-bound steel, aluminium and fertilizer exports pay CBAM at the EU price instead.
How is the CBAM certificate price set?
Weekly average of EU ETS auction clearing prices, published by the European Commission quarterly — €75.36/t for Q1 2026.
What are CBAM default values?
Commission-set fallback emission intensities per product and country, used when an importer has no verified data from the producer. They are deliberately conservative — reporting real verified data is usually cheaper.
Can verified plant data reduce my CBAM bill?
Yes — if your real embedded emissions are below the default values (they usually are for modern plants), reporting them cuts the certificate count directly.
Does the EU ETS apply to imported electricity?
Imports of electricity are in CBAM scope — relevant for grids bordering the EU (Western Balkans, North Africa interconnectors, UK until linkage).
What is the difference between a carbon tax and an ETS?
A tax fixes the price and lets emissions vary (Sweden ≈€115/t); an ETS fixes the emissions cap and lets the price vary (EU ETS). Roughly 43 taxes and 37 ETS operate worldwide (World Bank 2025).
Which country has the highest carbon price?
Among broad-based instruments: Sweden's carbon tax (≈€115/t, 2025) and Switzerland's CO2 levy (CHF 120/t) top the list; the EU ETS is the highest-priced large market.
How many countries price carbon in 2026?
About 80 instruments across ~50 jurisdictions, covering ~28% of global emissions (World Bank State & Trends 2025) — and roughly two-thirds of global GDP sits in a jurisdiction with a direct carbon price.
Is CBAM compatible with WTO rules?
The EU designed it as a non-discriminatory climate measure (same carbon cost as domestic producers, deductions for prices paid at home). Challenges are expected; none has succeeded as of mid-2026.
How do I find the emissions of a specific plant?
For EU installations: the Union Registry publishes verified emissions. Globally: satellite-based estimates (Climate TRACE) — we publish them for 30,000+ industrial facilities and 4,500+ power plants on
IndustryAtlas and
PowerAtlas, labeled as estimates.
What does €77/t mean per MWh of electricity?
≈€28/MWh on gas CCGT (0.37 t/MWh) and ≈€73/MWh on coal (0.95 t/MWh) — carbon is now one of the largest single cost lines in fossil generation.
What's the cheapest way to cut a carbon bill?
Stop buying allowances for wasted heat: uninsulated valves, flanges and hot equipment typically waste 2–5% of fuel-related CO2. Removable insulation recovers it with <2-year payback — faster and cheaper than process changes, fuel switching or CCS.
Are these prices live?
No — snapshots, each dated at the figure (EUA: 11 Jun 2026). See the
methodology for sources and update cadence.
Where can I download the underlying data?
Facility-level CO2:
free CSV (CC BY 4.0) with Harvard/APA/BibTeX citations. Price sources are listed per figure and in the methodology.
