Decarbonization is a sequencing problem. With CO2 at €77.4/t and free allocation ending in 2034, the question isn't «whether» — it's which tonnes to cut first. Here's the merit order the published abatement data supports.
All figures are per tonne of Scope 1 (direct) emissions abated.
Everything below ≈€77.4/t is cheaper than the allowance — pure arbitrage against your 2026–2034 ETS/CBAM bill. Steps 1–3 typically cut 10–25% of fuel-related CO2 without touching the process. Sources: IEA industry roadmaps, published marginal-abatement-cost studies; ranges are indicative and site-specific.
| Sector | Typical intensity | Pathway in order |
|---|---|---|
| Cement | ≈0.7 t/t | efficiency → clinker substitution → alternative fuels → CCS (calcination is chemical: CCS unavoidable for deep cuts) |
| Steel | 1.9 t/t (BF-BOF) | efficiency → scrap/EAF share → H2-DRI (Hybrit-type) → CCS |
| Chemicals/ammonia | ≈2.0 t/t NH3 | efficiency → electrified steam → green H2 feedstock |
| Food & beverage | low intensity, heat-heavy | insulation + heat pumps + biogas — often fully decarbonizable with today's tech |
| Power (gas) | 0.37 t/MWh | efficiency/heat-rate → renewables displacement → H2-ready turbines |
Boilers, kilns, heat exchangers, valves and steam lines lose energy continuously. Inzonex makes patented (UK GB2508992.1) removable modular insulation — snap-fastened covers engineered per temperature tier, not generic off-the-shelf jackets:
Hydrogen prices, CCS availability and grid carbon intensity are all uncertain. Fuel you stop wasting is not. A tonne avoided through insulation or heat recovery: pays back in <2 years at today's gas prices alone; earns €77.4 of avoided allowances on top (rising to full price by 2034); needs no new infrastructure, permits or process risk. That's why the IEA puts efficiency first in every industry roadmap — and why your decarbonization plan should start at the valves and flanges, not at the hydrogen pipeline. Quantify step 1 for your plant.
Practical plans sequence: bank the negative-cost savings (insulation, traps, controls) in years 1–2 → reinvest in heat recovery and electrification in years 2–5 → contract H2/CCS only where chemistry demands it. Plants that skip step 1 fund their hydrogen projects with money they're still burning through bare steel.