Refinery CO2 is almost all combustion: process heaters and boilers (~65%), the FCC regenerator, hydrogen production. Energy is 50–60% of operating cost net of crude, so carbon and margin point the same direction — every wasted GJ is paid twice.
| Year | Free allocation (EU) | Payable carbon cost | Annual bill (per 100,000 t crude) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 97.5% | €0.48 / t crude | €48,375 |
| 2030 | 51.5% | €9.38 / t crude | €938,475 |
| 2034 | 0.0% | €19.35 / t crude | €1,935,000 |
At EUA €77.4 (11 Jun 2026) and ≈0.2–0.3 t CO2/t throughput (Solomon/Concawe range). EU ETS industry schedule; exporters under CBAM follow the mirrored phase-in. Power sectors pay 100% from day one.
Indicative reduction potential of each measure against the relevant emissions share (sources: IEA industry roadmaps, sector associations — see each measure page). Measures stack but don't simply add.
Refineries are the original removable-insulation market: thousands of valves, flanges and manways at 150–450 °C that fixed lagging cannot serve because operators need access. A standard Solomon energy review finds insulation among the first-quartile gaps; our surveys price each bare DN150 valve at ≈13 MWh/yr — multiply by a refinery's count and the CBAM-era math writes itself.
Method: ASTM C680 / ISO 12241 surface energy balance — the same engine as our public calculators. Typical removable-insulation effect across hot-process plants: 2–5% of fuel-related CO2, payback up to 2 years.
Direct-emission intensities, typical published values per industry page — units differ by product; see each page for sources.
