Not a forecast — a law. Regulation (EU) 2023/956 phases out free allocation for CBAM sectors from 97.5% (2026) to 51.5% (2030) to 0% (2034) — so the share you must pay for rises from 2.5% to 48.5% to 100%. A plant paying for 2.5% of its benchmark emissions today pays for 48.5% in 2030 — ~19× more certificates at the same price.
From our guide: Carbon Price by Country 2026 — full context, charts and sources there.
